AI: Major Emerging Existential Threat To Humanity

[Etern4l]

14 minutes ago, ryan said:

Some sources are estimating 32 billion in AI generative income, or income due to AI. this could be a big deal. what do you guys think? will AI take over or are we just exagerating its capabilities. I think if AI can do creative work and create masterpieces of artwork we are in for a ride down the mountain.

 

source

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2018/01/12/10-charts-that-will-change-your-perspective-on-artificial-intelligences-growth/?sh=20cb579d4758

 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/state-of-ai-2023

 

Sure, we have to unpack "income" though. Concretely, it's a huge area of growth for the tech sector (mostly FAANG+Nvidia), and an even greater opportunity to cut cost through deployment of AI for many other industries. I liked this though:

Only a third of researchers think AI could cause catastrophe. Only?

We have to remember that the data is biased, as it takes some serious balls to be an employed (rather than independent) AI researcher and come out with major AI safety concerns. It's rather like a butcher waking up and starting to voice concerns about animal welfare. Some tenured professors can afford this, and only because they are selling a need for what is arguably hopeless "alignment" research. 

[ryan]

2 minutes ago, Etern4l said:

It's like a butcher waking up and starting to voice concerns about animal welfare.

haha genius comment brother 🙂

 

yeah I was thinking from an investment standpoint investing in AI could generate billions off thousands if you put your eggs in the right basket, kinda like buying bitcoin when it was worth pennies. that unfortunatly seems to be the only benefit of ai, I don't think creating an avalanche is good for us skiiers

[Etern4l]

15 minutes ago, ryan said:

yeah I was thinking from an investment standpoint investing in AI could generate billions off thousands if you put your eggs in the right basket, kinda like buying bitcoin when it was worth pennies. that unfortunatly seems to be the only benefit of ai, I don't think creating an avalanche is good for us skiiers

 

Not here to provide financial advice, but you need to be mindful of the risks, notably regulatory. For example, many large corporations have so far banned the use of generative AIs due to the legal uncertainty. Small caps/startups will probably be very volatile, some companies can go out of business overnight as a result to their product suddenly getting deprecated by a new model etc. (especially all this stuff around prompts).

[ryan]

I think every angle is relevant to this thread, it's not just about cons. some benefit can be gained from AI. Do you have any sources for AI artwork? I would'nt mind seeing it in action!

 

been seeing alot of headlines like this:

While all regions will benefit from this contribution, The greatest economic gains from AI will be in China (26% boost to GDP in 2030) and North America (14.5% boost), accounting for almost 70% of the global economic impact.

Additionally, AI can analyze data and make informed decisions, helping companies make better business decisions and increase profits. The development and implementation of AI technologies can also create jobs and stimulate economic growth.

[serpro69]

50 minutes ago, ryan said:

https://spectrum.ieee.org/state-of-ai-2023

 

oh, thanks for the reminder, I've been meaning to check some of these state-of-ai reports

here's another one from Stanford https://hai.stanford.edu/news/2023-state-ai-14-charts , but they're pretty similar of course

 

  

37 minutes ago, Etern4l said:

We have to remember that the data is biased, as it takes some serious balls to be an employed (rather than independent) AI researcher and come out with major AI safety concerns.

If you look at these reports above you will also notice that the majority of AI Ph.D. grads went on to work in the industry (in other words - they're in it for the dough), so yeah, definitely biased.

[Etern4l]

1 hour ago, ryan said:

I think every angle is relevant to this thread, it's not just about cons. some benefit can be gained from AI. Do you have any sources for AI artwork? I would'nt mind seeing it in action!

 

The question is not whether a benefit of AI exists, the question is what is the balance of pros and cons, and who ultimately stands to benefit the most. Here is my quick take:

 

1.  Billionaires, multimillionaires etc - big thumbs up, as in the short term they will be able to cut cost and extract more value from their enterprises. As AI cannot own assets, they will be safe until things get physical. 

2. Senior professionals - net benefit in the very short term, will be able to use AI to automate away a lot of junior work, ultimately will just get squeezed out as everyone else as the capabilities advance

3. Junior professionals / students - I don't know what to say, they are in a bad spot

4. Blue collar workers - on the one hand may benefit from access to AI assistants etc., on the other hand will be increasingly subjected to ruthless Amazon-style management by AI

5. Photographers - done for in the next few years

6. Other artists - depends on the medium, anything graphical is at immediate risk. Will the art be better, probably not, but it will be much much cheaper

7. Drivers - at a fairly immediate risk

 

I would suggest you open another thread on AI art as it would be a distraction here. Surprisingly, it's the first and probably the most hit area of human endeavour, all I can say is R.I.P. human art by and large, at least in the commercial setting.

 

As for the GDP estimates, I don't think anyone can estimate this correctly, so would just ignore the marketing figures to be safe.

 

  

1 hour ago, serpro69 said:

If you look at these reports above you will also notice that the majority of AI Ph.D. grads went on to work in the industry (in other words - they're in it for the dough), so yeah, definitely biased.

 

@serpro69

Of course, good link BTW. Moreover almost nobody invests in or goes into AI safety. 

It's not just AI research, seems like broader academia is affected as well. There are some right nutjobs at the top level of the hierarchy. Anyone directly involved in one of the labs, but also guys like the computational biologist Manolis Kellis of MIT - just an insane cheerleader, says things like "cool, humans won't have to think anymore, we will have computers for that, we will be working on things like creating new dance moves". 

 

Edit: @ryan Basically, the problem is that automation, even the "dumb" one ultimately has increased inequality.

 

From MIT: Study finds stronger links between automation and inequality 

Same from the Fed: The Impact of Automation on Inequality
From BoE: Uneven growth: automation’s impact on income and wealth inequality

A journalist's summary: US experts warn AI likely to kill off jobs – and widen wealth inequality

 

Now the inequality will rapidly accelerate as everyone continues to be squeezed while the AI advances towards the Holy Grail of complete automation on the blue collar front, while also proceeding to raze the middle class too (which of course will impact the entire ecosystem). No more or severely limited opportunities for smart people from disadvantaged backgrounds. Everyone but the top 1% gets poorer.

[Reciever]

8 hours ago, Etern4l said:

 

Didn't notice, you could have let me know right then or inserted a note in lieu of the image ("image of a naive human startled by the AI capabilities at time t + delta") as that image was a continuation of the slide before it, and trying to complete the point. I'm not sure it's worth retrofitting given the overall level of discussion and engagement with the topic here TBH (with one or two exceptions of course). Maybe it's time to consolidate the best material on first page and post the link on reddit and twitter lol

 

@Reciever Since we are moderating quite a bit (this looks to be by far the most heavily moderated thread I have seen on the site by moderator actions/posts), which I generally view as a value-adding activity, ideally we would also moderate the thread for informational value and clean up trolling.

For example, if a hypothetical troll with a track record of disruptive behaviour and zero relevant background in the topic, possibly attempting to contribute in a sedated state (if, for example, he advertised being in possession of a stash of legal in his jurisdiction drugs elsewhere on the site), invades with silly messages and personal attacks with no informational content, for example: "conspiracy theory, so funny!", "Tinfoil hat, haha", "Hello, it's me again, what I posted earlier is likely correct for no reason whatsoever, period.", can we remove that kind of inane and inflammatory noise please (otherwise we are no better than reddit and some bad areas of twitter)? We are trying to discuss a serious subject here, so it would be great if we could set a somewhat higher bar on the standard of communication (I don't mind bad grammar, dyslexia etc. as long as some reasonable arguments are being made or attempted). Many thanks.

 

To keep a slither of connection to the main topic, I consulted GPT 3.5 on the distraction at hand lol

 

TL;DR

 

Trolls are users who engage in intentionally provocative, disruptive, attention-seeking, and often anonymous behavior with a lack of empathy for other users. When determining the appropriate action to take against a troll, moderators should take into account a pattern of repeated "offending" and have clear guidelines and policies in place for dealing with trolls. This may include issuing warnings or bans, depending on the severity and frequency of the troll's behavior. The goal should be to maintain a positive and safe online environment for all users.

How to deal with an internet troll?

 

Dealing with an internet troll on a forum can be a frustrating experience, but there are several strategies you can use to manage the situation:

1. Don't engage: The first rule of dealing with trolls is to avoid engaging with them. Trolls thrive on attention, so the less you respond to their comments, the less likely they are to continue their behavior.

2. Report the troll: Most forums have a reporting system that allows users to flag inappropriate behavior. Use this system to report the troll to the forum moderators. Provide specific examples of the troll's behavior, including links to any offensive posts.

3. Block the troll: If the forum has a blocking feature, use it to prevent the troll from contacting you. This will also prevent you from seeing any of the troll's comments.

4. Respond with humor: If you do decide to respond to the troll, use humor to defuse the situation. Trolls are often looking for a reaction, and responding with a joke can take the wind out of their sails.

5. Stay calm: Trolls often try to provoke an emotional response, so it's important to stay calm and composed when dealing with them. Don't let the troll get under your skin.

Remember that trolls thrive on attention, so the best way to deal with them is to starve them of it. By not engaging with their behavior, you can minimize their impact on the forum and create a more positive online environment.

 

Should trolls be just banned from the site?

 

In most cases, yes, trolls should be banned from the site. Trolls typically engage in behavior that is disruptive and can harm the community, such as posting inflammatory or offensive comments, derailing discussions, and harassing other users. Banning trolls sends a clear message that this type of behavior is not acceptable on the site and helps to maintain a positive and respectful online environment.

However, it's important for forum moderators to have clear guidelines and policies in place to determine what constitutes trolling and to ensure that bans are applied fairly and consistently. It's also important to give trolls the opportunity to reform their behavior and learn from their mistakes. In some cases, a warning or temporary suspension may be more appropriate than an immediate ban.

Overall, banning trolls is a necessary step in maintaining a safe and productive online community, but it should be done in a thoughtful and measured way.

 

What are the main characteristics of a troll?

 

The main characteristics of a troll include:

1. Intentionally provocative behavior: Trolls seek to provoke and upset other users by making inflammatory or offensive comments. (check)

2. Disruptive behavior: Trolls often disrupt discussions and derail conversations by changing the subject or engaging in off-topic tangents. (check)

3. Attention-seeking behavior: Trolls crave attention and will often continue to post inflammatory comments even when they receive negative reactions from other users. (check)

4. Anonymity: Trolls often use pseudonyms or fake accounts to remain anonymous, which allows them to post provocative comments without fear of consequences. (N/A)

5. Lack of empathy: Trolls often have little empathy for other users and may enjoy causing others to feel upset or angry. (check)

6. Persistence: Trolls may continue to post inflammatory comments even after being warned or banned from a forum or website. (check)

It's important to note that not all users who exhibit these characteristics are necessarily trolls. Some users may engage in disruptive behavior or be provocative without the intention of causing harm or upset. It's up to forum moderators to determine whether a user is truly a troll and take appropriate action to maintain a positive online environment.

 

When determining the appropriate action to take against a troll which ticks all the boxes above, should a pattern of repeated "offending" be taken into account? What would be your recommendation?

 

Yes, a pattern of repeated "offending" should definitely be taken into account when determining the appropriate action to take against a troll. If a user consistently exhibits the characteristics of a troll and engages in disruptive or offensive behavior on multiple occasions, it's more likely that their behavior is intentional and aimed at causing harm or disruption to the community.

In terms of recommendations, forum moderators should have clear guidelines and policies in place for dealing with trolls, and these should take into account factors such as the severity and frequency of the troll's behavior. For example, a first-time offender may receive a warning or temporary suspension, while a repeat offender may be banned permanently.

It's also important for forum moderators to document instances of trolling and keep a record of any warnings or bans that have been issued. This helps to ensure that bans are applied fairly and consistently, and that users are held accountable for their behavior.

Ultimately, the goal should be to create a positive and safe online environment for all users, and taking appropriate action against trolls is an important step in achieving this.

 

I mean that's solid and common-sense advice, arguably 75%+ of native English-speaking humans would be unable to produce that level of response within several minutes, let alone several seconds. "My" last contribution on the trolling problem. Hope we can resolve the situation for the good of the site.

I do make attempts to be as transparant as possible in my moderator related actions, sometimes Im in a bind for time where I can let a problem persist ( which can be perceived as "ok" ) or cut it out for later notation. I elected for the latter in this instance since the debate was spilling out into other threads.

[ryan]

I appreciate being put back on track as you know @Reciever and @Etern4lI have a few issues mentally but I try and your efforts are not in vain. I know you guys are fighting (KJ and ET) but I just wished everyone got along, I guess its hard when the response is an immediate diss or trolling. @Etern4l can you share a link to something about AI you figure everyone should know, like an angle thats esoteric but important. I'm very interested in the topic and it might become the new desktop benchmark thread lol(chat box). I appreciate you guys and love how much I learn from your insights and reciever keep it up bro, your sites slowly but surely picking up the last 2 weeks.

 

AI, what questions should we be asking it, and ourselves?

[kojack]

15 minutes ago, ryan said:

I appreciate being put back on track as you know @Reciever and @Etern4lI have a few issues mentally but I try and your efforts are not in vain. I know you guys are fighting (KJ and ET) but I just wished everyone got along, I guess its hard when the response is an immediate diss or trolling. @Etern4l can you share a link to something about AI you figure everyone should know, like an angle thats esoteric but important. I'm very interested in the topic and it might become the new desktop benchmark thread lol(chat box). I appreciate you guys and love how much I learn from your insights and reciever keep it up bro, your sites slowly but surely picking up the last 2 weeks.

 

AI, what questions should we be asking it, and ourselves?

Hey I'm sure etern4l is an awesome dude.  But all this doom and gllom is a bit much.  

[ryan]

You said your son has autism, I get it, I have my own issues and I don't know your son, but love him the same way I love a friend. we really had no choice

 

yes eternal is an awesome dude, so are you. you guys just need to get a grip

[Etern4l]

Nuke-launching AI would be illegal under proposed US law

Will be interesting to see if and when this becomes law...

Will other nuclear powers follow suit?

[ryan]

2 hours ago, Etern4l said:

Nuke-launching AI would be illegal under proposed US law

Will be interesting to see if and when this becomes law...

Will other nuclear powers follow suit?

tell that to north korea. did you hear? he said if he dies they will nuke usa automatically.

 

source

 

North Korea will launch a nuclear retaliation “automatically and immediately” if KIM JONG UN is incapacitated in an attack, according to a new law, codifying for the first time that the leader has delegated his strike authority under that severe condition.Sep 9, 2022

[serpro69]

Here's an interesting read on some imminent "threats" AI could pose (and in fact to some degree already does) https://www.wsj.com/articles/i-cloned-myself-with-ai-she-fooled-my-bank-and-my-family-356bd1a3

 

[ryan]

8 hours ago, serpro69 said:

Here's an interesting read on some imminent "threats" AI could pose (and in fact to some degree already does) https://www.wsj.com/articles/i-cloned-myself-with-ai-she-fooled-my-bank-and-my-family-356bd1a3

 

WTH

 

No one finds this creepy, like think of the implications criminal wise, they can literally decieve anyone with this technology. I think I heard about a fake hostage situation and the mom gave out 30 000 and her daughter was fine but was tricked by a distress call.

[Etern4l]

5 hours ago, ryan said:

WTH

 

No one finds this creepy, like think of the implications criminal wise, they can literally decieve anyone with this technology. I think I heard about a fake hostage situation and the mom gave out 30 000 and her daughter was fine but was tricked by a distress call.

 

Yep, I've heard about a concrete case from a family member already, about a month ago. "Distressed daughter" call.

 

That panicky call from a relative? It could be a thief using a voice clone, FTC warns

 

Mum, help: Nina made three bank transfers before realising she had been scammed

 

It's fascinating, and obviously unsettling, to see parts of sci movies step by step becoming reality before our very eyes (a complete shapeshifting T1000, the robot, rather than the Nvidia video card, is probably some time away, fortunately!).

 

 

 

[serpro69]

13 hours ago, ryan said:

No one finds this creepy, like think of the implications criminal wise, they can literally decieve anyone with this technology. I think I heard about a fake hostage situation and the mom gave out 30 000 and her daughter was fine but was tricked by a distress call.

 

Of course scammers existed way before present times, but it just became so much easier for them to fool people (and machines).

[Etern4l]

Warning of AI’s danger, pioneer Geoffrey Hinton quits Google to speak freely

The guy is a very well known academic in the field. Good data point on what's going on at Google, and whether the dangers of AI are real.

[serpro69]

2 hours ago, Etern4l said:

Warning of AI’s danger, pioneer Geoffrey Hinton quits Google to speak freely

The guy is a very well known academic in the field. Good data point on what's going on at Google, and whether the dangers of AI are real.

 

Was about to post the same :D 

 

Quote

 

Hinton said he was worried about AI's capacity to create convincing false images and texts, creating a world where people will "not be able to know what is true anymore".

"It is hard to see how you can prevent the bad actors from using it for bad things," he said.

 

 

Which effectively means we might end up in a situation where you either disbelieve almost everything, just to err on the side of caution (which very few will do), or it will be even easier to manipulate the masses than it is today.

 

Quote

“That so many experts are speaking up about their concerns regarding the safety of AI, with some computer scientists going as far as regretting some of their work, should alarm policymakers," said Dr Carissa Veliz, an associate professor in philosophy at the University of Oxford's Institute for Ethics in AI. "The time to regulate AI is now."

 

[ryan]

how would one go about creating a petition to the worlds gov. would it be possible to gain traction on twitter/facebook?

[Reciever]

1 minute ago, ryan said:

how would one go about creating a petition to the worlds gov. would it be possible to gain traction on twitter/facebook?

It's better than nothing. 

 

It's a difficult balance between rational communication of a potential danger that you can't relate too and sounding irrational by skipping the details for shock value which makes for an uphill battle. 

[ryan]

I'm honestly ignorant to it (lack of knowledge) but Im reading up on it, I think someone needs to stand up. here's something interesting I found about hurdles concerning ai

 

Artificial Intelligence Challenges

Bias

For AI, bias is a significant issue. Our attempts to collect correct data will never be flawless; nonetheless, when AI is used to its full potential, bias will always be there.

Forbes India explains why data is biased in this way: Data used to train AI systems has a flaw that must be fixed. Preconceptions about race, gender, community, and ethnicity may distort statistics. Each of these options is determined by a secret algorithm created by the company itself. Without addressing algorithmic bias, unethical and unequal outcomes may result.

A rise in the number of artificial intelligence (AI) hiring systems that rely on erroneous data will lead to more discrimination. This involves using objective data and simple approaches to train and develop these systems.

Processing Power

Processing power has been a problem for the IT sector in the past. The IT industry has never encountered a problem like this before because of the vast amounts of data that need to be processed. It is not easy to find and finance that much processing power.

Computer-Aided Reasoning in Action

One of the most essential Artificial Intelligence Challenges is right here!

Visual Basic for Applications development is more complex than adding plugins to a website or Excel spreadsheet (VBA). To avoid interruptions during the installation process, ensure that all present programs are AI-compatible before proceeding. When establishing the AI interface, several aspects must be taken into consideration. This must be performed first to ensure that all employees are adequately taught the new system.

Assimilation of Information and Application

Artificial intelligence (AI) can only be effective in the workplace when an ample supply of relevant data supports it. Data may be gathered from various sources, including text, audio, photos, and video. The variety of platforms used to obtain this data adds to the complexity of artificial intelligence. If AI succeeds, all this data must be digested and transformed into meaningful information.

Lack of Expertise

AI can only be created by a select few people who have the appropriate training and experience. Investing in AI development courses or the employment of AI development professionals is urgently needed.

As a result, companies are trying to hire the best employees, no matter how compelling their digital software is. It is common for enterprises to use AI via hiring contractors, training them, and acquiring or licensing technology from large technology corporations. You need a plan if you want to use AI effectively. Identifying areas of growth, setting targets, and building a feedback loop are all part of a continuous improvement process. To get the most out of AI, managers need to be aware of Artificial Intelligence Challenges.

Legal Issues

In addition to the above-mentioned Artificial Intelligence Challenges, businesses should be aware of the most recent legal issues arising from the use of AI. Even if a single piece of information is not harmful, an AI system collects sensitive data. AI is not illegal, but firms must look for any negative implications. If the general public believes that the data violates their right to privacy, the benefits to the company may be outweighed by the harm to their reputation.

Artificial intelligence is a better option than conventional systems since we do not know how they work. The root of the issue is a lack of familiarity with artificial intelligence (AI). When it comes to artificial intelligence (AI), most people do not know where to begin. You may not be able to use AI to its full potential due to ethical considerations.

Many small and medium-sized firms may increase productivity or manage resources more effectively via technology, and many of these ways can be achieved using this method. Examples of cloud computing services are Google Cloud and Amazon Web Services.

 

source

 

https://www.eescorporation.com/what-are-the-challenges-of-artificial-intelligence/

[Etern4l]

Here we go:

IBM to pause hiring in plan to replace 7,800 jobs with AI - Bloomberg News

Presumably pretty decent jobs - poof!

ChatGPT warning knocks $1 billion off market caps of education giants Pearson and Chegg

Translation: the rich getting richer by shorting the education sector and thus making an informed bet that AI will take it out.

 

[cucubits]

I haven't bumped into this thread before but it sure is an interesting discussion. To be honest I'm having very contradictory feelings about all this sudden AI advancement. On one hand it's progress, it should help mankind free up a lot of valuable time by taking away some of our day to day tasks, on the other hand, I feel it's going to be too easy to spiral out of control. 

 

I think we'll see major changes in some/most jobs over the next few years. The US being somewhat generally slower to accept change, will probably delay this inevitable a bit, but not by much.

 

In my particular case, I welcome this part. Some of my day to day tasks are writing simple linux scripts to automate things. What would take me a day just to code and work through the correct syntax, now is a matter of a clear description and bam, chatgpt gives me a pretty turnkey template. Of course not feeding it any company specific info/details/IPs, etc. 

 

Oh yeah, on the art side, I like it a lot. I've been following Midjourney discord channel for a while now and it's quite amazing what it can do. 

 

Here's an example of Prince Charles skateboarding 😆 

 

[Etern4l]

  

40 minutes ago, cucubits said:

I haven't bumped into this thread before but it sure is an interesting discussion. To be honest I'm having very contradictory feelings about all this sudden AI advancement. On one hand it's progress, it should help mankind free up a lot of valuable time by taking away some of our day to day tasks, on the other hand, I feel it's going to be too easy to spiral out of control. 

 

I think we'll see major changes in some/most jobs over the next few years. The US being somewhat generally slower to accept change, will probably delay this inevitable a bit, but not by much.

 

In my particular case, I welcome this part. Some of my day to day tasks are writing simple linux scripts to automate things. What would take me a day just to code and work through the correct syntax, now is a matter of a clear description and bam, chatgpt gives me a pretty turnkey template. Of course not feeding it any company specific info/details/IPs, etc. 

 

Oh yeah, on the art side, I like it a lot. I've been following Midjourney discord channel for a while now and it's quite amazing what it can do. 

 

Here's an example of Prince Charles skateboarding 😆 

 

 

 

That's all well and fun, but what if creating those daunting Linux scripts was a significant part of the job and a part of the value proposition. If that's effectively automated, what is the added value left? Consider a larger company which employs 10, 100, or 1000 people in a similar role.  If let's say their productivity improved by 50% (conservatively), they will reasonably have to consider axing 5, 50 or 500 people, unless there is something else for them to do that AI can't. Moving around might not be easy, as there will be people in other areas in a similar position.

 

I very much doubt the US will be lagging, quite the contrary - it will be at the forefront of the change, being the barebone free market system dominated by large corporations. See the update from IBM above, and consider the layoffs situation in the US tech sector which happened to coincide with the reveal of ChatGPT.

 

AI is often compared to the Industrial Revolution. The interesting thing there is that industrialization initially resulted in a loss of jobs and economic output. Eventually, people managed to use their brains and re-adjust. This situation is fundamentally very different. There won't be anywhere to run, but to lower skill and pay physical work, until humanoid robots arrive that is.

 

Clearly you haven't had a chance to go through all the content and videos, but let me repost a brilliant quote from the Max Tegmark (who unfortunately makes the mistake of trivialising the economic impact, a common theme with the self-interested AI community) interview on page 3:

 

"We're rushing towards a cliff, but the closer we get, the more scenic the views are."

[cucubits]

You're right, I did only go through the first and last page of this topic so far. 

 

That's quite a brilliant quote and right now I feel we're at the spot where we can maybe almost see a cliff but the views are prettier and we're ignoring the rest. 

 

Hard to say how bad it will be and how much of a snowball effect it will have when companies really start using AI to replace actual human jobs.