dell The Madness has begun

[MyPC8MyBrain]

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I got notified on my end this morning. RAM and storage manufacturing costs are increasing next month. This isn’t something that is only going to affect Dell, it’s across every industry.  Everyone is set to get hit with the same cost increases because these components come from the same global suppliers.

Even though your server doesn’t have drives in the configuration, the system itself still uses components that fall under the new pricing model such as the ram. I wanted to mention this to you because you will notice the pricing on the server is not the same as what it has been in previous quotes. This is the new pricing model that I was able to get to after a lot of back and forth with our financing dept.

This is from our Dell business sales manager letting me know that they now need to increase the price for a single 16GB stick of RAM included in our server config by additional $400 for that single RAM stick that already was quoted at around $360+.

looks like manufactures and vendors wants us to pay inflated rates created by the current AI-driven market panic they themselves created.

[Aaron44126]

This has been brewing for a while.

 

More demand = higher prices. They're going to sell their inventory at the highest price possible, and AI companies are willing to pay a lot, it seems like.

 

Also, other market shifts.

https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2025/12/after-nearly-30-years-crucial-will-stop-selling-ram-to-consumers/

 

New fabs are being set up to try to meet the demand, but that's a years-long process.

 

Maybe the AI bubble will burst eventually. I'm just glad that I'm not in a spot to want to buy a new system or upgrade anything right now.

[MyPC8MyBrain]

That isn’t “market adjustment.” It’s straight exploitation. Vendors are offloading their AI-driven supply issues onto end users.
They’re the ones pouring billions into AI buildouts and creating this demand spike; now they’re trying to make consumers eat the cost.
 

And let’s be honest; Dell’s RAM was already inflated at roughly triple the real value. Adding another $400 overnight for the same 16 GB stick is outrageous.
They’re not buying new stock at panic-pricing today; they’re sitting on inventory. This move is nothing but opportunistic markup, and it’s aggravating to watch.

[Aaron44126]

Yeah, I get the way that the rep framed the price hike to you is gross. I think it is really the Dell bean counters "exploiting" as you say, realizing that they can sell the RAM at a higher price so they're going to do it. (They would have to raise prices eventually as their upstream source for memory starts to cost more, but that hasn't happened yet for stuff they have already purchased and have in inventory.)

 

Not just Dell, anywhere you look RAM prices are up 2×-4× since summertime.

[MyPC8MyBrain]

The funny part is we’ve got multiple servers on order and ten times that number in Dell workstations coming in.
Not a single workstation config had a RAM price hike. Only the servers did.
 

So the “global supply increase” explanation doesn’t hold water. If this were a universal memory cost jump, it would hit every line across the board. Instead, they selectively bumped server RAM; where margins are already padded and customers are easier to corner. That tells me this isn’t supply pressure; it’s opportunistic pricing.

[Aaron44126]

Just saw this fun headline.

https://www.pcworld.com/article/2998935/ram-is-so-expensive-samsung-wont-even-sell-it-to-samsung.html

[MyPC8MyBrain]

Yeah, I saw that headline too. This AI frenzy is out of control.
By the time the average non-tech person realizes what’s happening, the damage will already be baked in.
Prices never snap back 50% in a few months; once they ratchet up, they stay there.
 

If this keeps going unchecked, it’s going to wreck the entire market. Everyone pays for the hype except the companies driving it.

[MyPC8MyBrain]

We’ve had our share of global “races” before - atomic, space, take your pick. The difference is those had a finish line. AI doesn’t.
This one just keeps accelerating with no defined endpoint, and the collateral damage gets pushed onto everyone else.

No one actually seems to know what the end goal is here. There’s no clear technological milestone that advances humanity; just financial greed and FOMO. These companies aren’t betting on a defined outcome; they’re betting on “not missing out,” and all of it revolves around endlessly training bigger models with no finish line. It’s a blind arms race that burns resources and drives prices up for everyone else.

The newer crowd pushed the old guard aside, and the whole thing is being driven by this generation’s obsession with FOMO.
It’s not discipline, strategy, or long-term vision; it’s reactionary hype, and the industry is paying the price for it.

[MyPC8MyBrain]

Quick update on the situation,

After pushing back on the sudden RAM price hike, Dell doubled down and framed it as “new pricing models” driven by market conditions. I went through several rounds of back-and-forth with their sales and finance contacts. The justification kept shifting, and it became clear the change wasn’t tied to actual upstream cost increases; it was a selective adjustment on server-grade RAM only.
 

The ironic part is we have multiple servers and a large batch of workstations on order. Not a single workstation configuration saw a RAM increase. Only the servers got hit, and only after they realized the size of the overall purchase. That tells you everything.
 

Right now, it looks less like a supply problem and more like internal margin tuning triggered by the current AI-driven panic in the market.

[MyPC8MyBrain]

a direct comparison against an equivalent HPE configuration to sanity-check this RAM increase.
Both servers are effectively identical where it matters:
• Xeon Gold 6526Y
• 128 GB DDR5-5600
• 2× 480 GB SATA SSD (RI)
• Hardware RAID
• 8× 2.5" SAS/SATA-capable bays
• Redundant Titanium PSUs
• The only functional difference is networking (HPE ships 4×1 GbE vs Dell’s 2×1 GbE)

Publicly advertised pricing:
• Dell PowerEdge R660xs: 8,939.25 link
• HPE ProLiant DL360 Gen11: $6,120.28 link
(HPE add 2x 480GB SSD Drives to match)

Dell’s systems now land almost 50% higher for the same hardware profile.

[MyPC8MyBrain]

Quick update on where Dell’s head is at right now.
 

They’ve fully committed to this narrative that “the market is going up next month” due to AI demand, component shortages, the usual buzzwords. They’re trying to set the stage so everyone just accepts higher pricing as inevitable. The problem is the numbers don’t line up with reality. HP’s public pricing on identical class hardware is still sitting well below Dell’s, even without promos. That tells you everything.
 

On Dell’s side, the internal machinery feels jammed. Slow movement, slow approvals, half-baked answers, lots of “checking with the team.” It’s not the reps; they’re doing what they can, but the system above them is clearly locked into a defensive position. The whole thing feels more like price conditioning than actual market pressure.
 

Bottom line Dell is betting hard that customers won’t push back and won’t price-check outside their ecosystem. The public market says otherwise. If this is the direction they’re taking, expect the next quarter to be rough for anyone sticking with them out of habit instead of value.

[Aaron44126]

https://www.theverge.com/report/839506/ram-shortage-price-increases-pc-gaming-smartphones

[MyPC8MyBrain]

There’s so much wrong here it’s hard to know where to start. By the time these companies finish polishing their new AI data centers and building their next wave of fabs, they’re going to run headfirst into a market where fewer and fewer people can afford the hardware needed to actually use any of it.
 

This isn’t just about RAM. Every step in the chain is flashing red->
• Rack space for small and mid-size businesses is already tightening, and once data centers give priority to AI customers with deeper pockets, prices will spike. A ton of small operations, hobby projects, and long-standing community forums simply won’t survive the new baseline.
• Cloud dependence will get worse, not better. As physical hardware becomes too expensive for individuals to buy or host, more people will be forced into cloud ecosystems that are also raising prices.
• Talent shortage is real. There aren’t enough qualified engineers to justify the billions being poured into expansion. You can’t brute-force experience. You can’t scale people like you scale GPUs.
• Consumer hardware is drifting toward luxury-tier pricing. It’s becoming something you “qualify for,” not something you buy. Entry-level devices will become disposable junk, while anything usable gets locked behind a financial wall.
 

Everyone’s chasing the same fantasy, infinite AI growth with no real-world constraints. It’s a blind stampede that destroys the equilibrium we finally reached with component pricing; not because of innovation, but because greed and panic are steering the ship.
 

Honestly, it’s hard to call this progress. We’re supposedly the “smart species,” yet we’re building the lion’s den and then sprinting straight toward its mouth. The monkey we claim to have evolved from would’ve simply run for its life. So right now, who looks smarter?

[MyPC8MyBrain]

Quick update on where things stand and honestly, the market’s taken another turn for the worse in just the past few days.

It’s not just RAM anymore. Everything upstream is getting hammered. Even copper futures spiked hard, which tells you all you need to know about where the manufacturing and logistics chain is heading. When raw materials start jumping like that, everything that depends on them follows: PCBs, power delivery, cabling, server chassis, networking hardware, all of it.

 

The pricing pressure we’re seeing from Dell isn’t isolated. It’s a symptom of a bigger storm that’s been building quietly for months. AI build-outs have vacuumed up supply, fabs are oversubscribed, and now even the industrial commodities behind the hardware are taking hits. That’s a perfect recipe for a market where consumers, pro-summer, small businesses, labs, repair shops, everyone getting squeezed hard.

 

And the worst part is the feedback loop; higher costs mean fewer purchases, fewer purchases mean lower volume, lower volume means even higher per-unit costs. This snowball is rolling downhill fast, and unless something breaks the cycle, we’re all about to pay “entry fees” for basic compute that would’ve sounded insane five years ago.

the trend is obvious; we’re heading into a hardware market where everything costs more, performs the same, and arrives slower. The timing couldn’t be worse.

[Eban]

Thank you for the info 

 

[Aaron44126]

8 hours ago, MyPC8MyBrain said:

we’re heading into a hardware market where everything costs more, performs the same, and arrives slower. The timing couldn’t be worse.

 

Eh. I think we're also going to see at least some companies trying to reduce prices by providing you with crappier stuff. Systems with 8GB of RAM (or less?) when 16GB would be more appropriate. Squeeze onto tiny SSDs. Etc. People like us will be able to see and avoid these, but your non-tech family member who just goes to Costco to buy a cheap laptop is going to get something extra crappy.

[MyPC8MyBrain]

2 hours ago, Aaron44126 said:

I think we're also going to see at least some companies trying to reduce prices by providing you with crappier stuff

That’s exactly the direction this is heading, and it’s not even incompetence it’s intentional. Everyone thinks “8GB is too little,” but for the next wave of OS designs, 8GB is plenty if the UI is nothing more than a thin shell that boots straight into your online account. Local compute becomes irrelevant when everything you do gets pushed through a remote service.
 

First it was games. Then it was telemetry. Then “cloud integration.” Now the hardware footprint itself is being shrunk to force people deeper into online ecosystems where every click, scroll, and purchase is monetized. You’re not buying a machine anymore you’re buying an access terminal that feeds them data.
 

And that’s the endgame reduce BOM costs, cut local capability, and make sure every user especially the non-technical ones has no choice but to live inside a walled garden. It’s the most reliable revenue model they’ve ever had, and they’re going to push it hard.
 

The cheap laptops won’t just be weak. They’ll be weak on purpose.
 

It’s insane when you step back and look at it. We spent decades moving forward empowering people with real machines, real autonomy, real capability and now the entire industry is dragging us backwards so the richest companies on earth can squeeze profit out of every possible angle.
 

People forgot what “PC” even stands for. It was Personal Computing. Local. Independent. Yours.
 

What they’re pushing now is basically Public Computing thin clients dressed up as laptops, everything routed through someone else’s servers, someone else’s rules, someone else’s monetization engine. It’s the opposite of progress. It’s not innovation; it’s consolidation disguised as convenience.
 

And the saddest part? Most people won’t realize what they lost until it’s completely gone and irreversible.

[KING19]

Just another reason i hope AI crashes and burns but unfortunately its going to take all of us down with it... Even the prices of DDR4 RAM sticks are ridiculous.

 

AI is cool to use but its far from ready but companies are pushing it for to imcreasr productivity at a much lower cost than having workers. Even here in the US tech companies are hiring H1B1 workers like crazy instead of hiring american workers to save costs, Pretty much cheap foreign labor, Lower pay and higher work hours.. 

[MyPC8MyBrain]

The mess we’re seeing in RAM pricing didn’t come out of nowhere. It’s the end result of a chain reaction that started with two companies most people have never heard of.

The Rabbit Hole begins in Spruce Pine, North Carolina, where Sibelco and The Quartz Corp. run the mines that produce almost all of the ultra-pure quartz used to make the crucibles for growing silicon ingots. This material is so clean and rare that the entire semiconductor supply chain depends on it. No quartz means no crucibles. No crucibles means no wafers. No wafers means no chips. It is one of the most fragile choke points in modern technology, and nobody paid attention to it until Hurricane Helene hit in September 2024. Power went out, roads were flooded, and both mines were shut down for weeks. That alone was enough to push every major wafer supplier into allocation almost immediately. Shin-Etsu, SUMCO, GlobalWafers, Siltronic; all of them tightened supply heading into 2025 because their raw material pipeline had stalled.

Once the upstream pressure hit the wafer producers, the downstream consequences landed in the laps of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. These three control roughly ninety-five percent of the world’s DRAM output and effectively the entire supply of HBM. Their order books were already stressed, and the gap between normal PC demand and AI demand turned into a canyon. Consumer DDR5 grows at a predictable pace. AI customers are throwing money at HBM3 and HBM4 and are willing to pay five to ten times the margin of desktop memory.

Faced with that imbalance, the big three did what they always do when margins are skewed. They shifted most of their advanced DRAM capacity toward HBM and server grade DDR5. The consumer market was left with scraps. Prices didn’t rise by accident; the shortage was engineered by capacity decisions. December contract pricing jumped nearly 80 to 100 percent in a single month. Retail followed just as fast. Kits that cost around one hundred dollars in midsummer now sit closer to two hundred fifty and climbing. Even DDR4 is riding the same wave as older lines get repurposed or shut down.

The ripple effect is already hitting system builders. Prebuilt vendors have announced fifteen to twenty-five percent price increases and directly named memory costs as the reason. And this isn’t the ceiling. Current projections show constrained supply stretching well into late 2027. New fabs take years to build and qualify. Meanwhile AI demand refuses to slow.

Boiled down, the Spruce Pine shutdown was the trigger, but the runaway market we’re seeing now is the result of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron chasing AI margins and letting the consumer channel absorb the damage. It mirrors the seventies oil shock, except the “OPEC” here is three semiconductor giants who don’t need to hide their strategy.

RAM has become digital oil, and the price at the pump just doubled. If you plan to upgrade, do it now, because this trend isn’t turning around anytime soon.

[MyPC8MyBrain]

The AI hardware market isn’t about raw compute anymore. What’s really happening is that it’s being exploited because of a memory problem that’s been baked into x86 PCs and servers for decades and never fixed.

Here’s the core of it. CPU and GPU memory don’t talk to each other properly. They sit in completely separate pools, and any time the GPU needs data from system RAM, it has to copy it over the PCIe bus, sync it, process it, then copy it back. This isn’t really a bandwidth problem. It’s latency, coordination, and a mess of software complexity, and it gets worse as AI models get bigger.

That’s why VRAM has become a hard gate for anyone trying to run AI locally. If your model doesn’t fit inside the GPU’s memory, you are basically dead in the water, even while massive chunks of system RAM sit idle.

Apple Silicon shows this isn’t a law of physics. With unified, coherent memory, CPU and GPU work on the same data without copies. Memory isn’t owned by one device. It is shared. Software gets simpler, latency drops, and efficiency jumps. The only limit is how much memory the product ships with, not the architecture itself.

This is exactly where the industry should be heading and where CXL comes in.

CXL isn’t a faster PCIe bus. It is a coherency protocol that lets CPUs, GPUs, and memory expanders share the same memory pool. Instead of forcing GPUs to hoard memory locally, you can treat system RAM as a shared resource. Models don’t need to be duplicated per GPU anymore, and scaling becomes a matter of adding compute, not copying memory.

It doesn’t magically make DDR as fast as HBM, and latency doesn’t disappear. But it removes the need to constantly move data around just to make accelerators work at all.

This is also why CUDA exists. CUDA thrives because it gives developers control over isolated memory domains, which is exactly what current hardware forces you to do. CUDA didn’t create the problem. It just optimized around it. But the moment memory becomes coherent and shared, a lot of CUDA’s “must-have” control starts to matter less. You move from orchestrating memory to scheduling compute, and suddenly the advantage of isolated memory shrinks.

NVIDIA knows this, and their strategy locks the status quo in place. They cannot offer unified system memory on x86 today, so instead they pack GPUs with ever-larger VRAM. That is not luxury. It is a workaround. NVLink exists for multi-GPU coherence, but it is mostly limited to servers. High-end workstations ship massive VRAM but no real way to pool it coherently. You are forced to manage memory manually or pay an enormous premium for server-grade gear.

It is not a mistake. It is a product boundary.

The result is clear. The AI boom is built on duplicated memory, forced copies, and inflated costs. NVIDIA isn’t just winning because of fast GPUs or CUDA. They have built an ecosystem around an architectural flaw.

CXL is the first step to fixing it. It will not flip the market overnight, but coherent memory as a first-class system resource will eventually shift the balance. Control over capacity matters less, efficiency of compute matters more.

Right now, the industry is paying a premium for an architectural flaw that NVIDIA has learned to monetize with surgical precision.

That is the real NVIDIA tax.